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Commentary
Our commentary explores markets through the same lens that shapes our investment decisions. We review what has happened, assess what it means, and consider how future conditions may evolve. Forecasting is treated with rigour and humility, acknowledging uncertainty while focusing on long-term implications rather than short-term noise.

Rear view mirror

Looking back at recent market developments and portfolio behaviour, assessing what occurred, why it happened, and how outcomes compared with prior expectations.

As geopolitical tensions eased, attention turned to the continued growth of AI investment, the recovery in UK gilts and the impact of inflation and interest rate decisions on global marketsRead moreRead moreJune 2026
As geopolitical tensions escalated and oil prices surged, this quarter examines the impact on global markets, why Emerging Markets outperformed, the challenges facing US equities, and the risks of persistent inflation.Read moreRead moreMarch 2026
Regional market performance diverged as UK equities outperformed, AI investment gathered pace and bond markets strengthened. This commentary examines the key developments that shaped investor confidence heading into 2026.Read moreRead moreDecember 2025
Global equity markets continued to benefit from AI-driven investment during the quarter, alongside changing interest rate expectations, emerging market growth and ongoing geopolitical tensions that shaped investor sentimentRead moreRead moreSeptember 2025

“The fundamental law of investing is the uncertainty of the future”

Peter Bernstein.

The bend in the road

A forward-looking assessment of economic and market conditions, considering how different scenarios may influence long-term investment outcomes.

Bringing together return forecasts, risk forecasting and portfolio construction to examine how disciplined forecasting supports long-term investment decisions under uncertainty.Read moreRead moreJuly 2026
Examining how investment risk evolves over time, how assets interact within portfolios, and why forward-looking risk forecasts are fundamental to long-term investment decision-making.Read moreRead moreJuly 2026
Exploring the factors that shape long-term fixed income returns, how the natural interest rate, term premia and credit spreads determine yields, and their role in developing forward-looking return forecasts.Read moreRead moreJuly 2026
Examining the three fundamental drivers of long-term equity returns, how they interact, and the role they play in developing disciplined forecasts that support long-term investment decisions.Read moreRead moreJuly 2026
Examining the principles of effective forecasting, the role of uncertainty in investment decision-making, and why disciplined forecasting provides a stronger foundation than relying on prediction alone.Read moreRead moreJuly 2026